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If you had gone away from the market a week ago Friday, and come back Friday at the close, you would have thought it was quite a dull week, with the S&P barely budging. However, if you had been around to trade throughout the week, you would have seen plenty of action. At the same time, we're sure a lot of traders got whipsawed, which can easily happen when the market goes nowhere.
There were a few economic reports throughout the week, but everyone was keyed on the Fed's words that accompanied their interest rate decision. There were no big surprises there, but since traders expect perfection, there was the usual disappointment that kept the market from making any substantive move for the week.
On the positive side, all of the major indexes held key support, so a definite plus for the bulls. However, all that really happened is the indexes stayed in a tight range. So, unless the S&P can close above 945, we imagine the whipsaw action will continue.
Another plus is that more of our key Market Sentiment/Technical Indicators are now squarely in the bullish column, and right at a time of the month that is also bullish. So, if we had to make a market call here we'd have to say the chances have increased that we'll soon see higher prices.
One thing is for certain; we're not interested in shorting this market, not when there are too many signs that point to a higher market. Now, we also realize this could change quickly, because one bad day could take us below key support, so we'll keep one finger on the sell button, just in case.
While last week's Fed meeting garnered a lot of attention, the bigger report will be coming out this Friday, when the government releases June's employment numbers. There's simply no question that the market is looking for any sign that unemployment is abating, and more importantly, that people are actually getting jobs. Until that happens, it will be difficult for the market to make substantial progress.
We also need to keep things in perspective here, and remember that the S&P has climbed almost 40% in just three months, so it's not so easy to keep climbing each day. Instead, it is going to take more time to realize additional gains, and that at some point we're likely to take a step back before we can move higher. The key then becomes taking profits as they come along, and being prepared to step aside ahead of any meaningful selling.
Even if the S&P manages to negotiate and close above 945, you can expect a major battle as we near 1,000. We're not there yet, but it wouldn't take too much to get there under the right circumstances. We even got a little more aggressive last week when we saw the major indexes hold support, and we'll have some fresh decisions to make if we do get near 945.
Right now we'll continue to take it one day at a time. We would like to see an increase in volume if we move higher, as this will tell us that there could be additional buying ahead. Let's not forget that we're going to begin to get a slew of earnings over the next several weeks, and possibly some earnings warnings, so this could add to the overall volatility. Thus, be careful not to overload on any individual stock, because an early warning or a missed earnings report could end up hitting you hard in the pocket book.